Elkhuizen S G, Das S F, Bakker P J M, Hontelez J A M
Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Department of Innovation and Process Management, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Qual Saf Health Care. 2007 Oct;16(5):382-6. doi: 10.1136/qshc.2006.021568.
To develop general applicable models for analysing the capacity needed in appointment-based hospital facilities.
A fairly simple analytical queuing model was used to obtain rapid global insight into the capacity needed to meet the norm of seeing 95% of all new patients within 2 weeks. For more detailed analysis, a simulation model was developed that could handle daily variations in demand and capacity schedules. The capacity needed to eliminate backlogs and the capacity needed to keep access time within 2 weeks was calculated. Both models were applied to two outpatient departments (neurology and gynaecology) at the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Model results for neurology were implemented.
For neurology, to eliminate the 6-week backlog, 26 extra consultations per week were needed over 2 months. A permanent increase of 2-weekly consultations was required to keep access time within 2 weeks. Evaluation after implementation showed the improvements the model had predicted. The gynaecology department had sufficient capacity. With the simulation, it was calculated that the same service level could be achieved with 14% less capacity. Thus the models supported decisions made for departments with shortages of capacity as well as those for departments with adequate capacity.
The analytical model provided quick insight into the extra capacity needed for the neurology department. The added value of the simulation model was the possibility of taking into account variations in demand for different weekdays and a realistic schedule for doctors' consultations. General applicability of the models was shown by applying both models to the gynaecology department.
开发通用适用模型,用于分析预约制医院设施所需的容量。
使用一个相当简单的分析排队模型,以便快速全面了解在两周内诊治95%的所有新患者所需的容量。为了进行更详细的分析,开发了一个模拟模型,该模型可以处理需求和容量安排的每日变化。计算了消除积压所需的容量以及将就诊时间控制在两周内所需的容量。这两个模型都应用于荷兰阿姆斯特丹学术医学中心的两个门诊科室(神经科和妇科)。神经科的模型结果得到了实施。
对于神经科,为了消除6周的积压,在两个月内每周需要额外增加26次会诊。需要将两周一次的会诊永久性增加,以使就诊时间保持在两周内。实施后的评估显示了模型所预测的改善情况。妇科有足够的容量。通过模拟计算得出,容量减少14%仍可实现相同的服务水平。因此,这些模型支持了对容量不足科室以及容量充足科室所做的决策。
分析模型提供了对神经科所需额外容量的快速洞察。模拟模型的附加价值在于能够考虑不同工作日的需求变化以及医生会诊的实际安排。通过将两个模型应用于妇科,展示了这些模型的普遍适用性。