Abel Ernest L, Kruger Michael L
Wayne State University, C.S. Mott Center for Human Growth and Development, 275 East Hancock, Detroit, MI 48201, USA.
Death Stud. 2007 Nov;31(10):933-40. doi: 10.1080/07481180701603428.
We tested McCann's precocity-longevity hypothesis, which proposes that early career achievement is related to premature death, for Major League baseball players (N = 3,760). Age at debut was the definition for precocity. We controlled for possible artifacts of life expectancy selection, the "healthy worker" effect, player position, and body-mass index. Statistically significant Pearson correlations occurred between precocity and longevity, and remained significant when adjusted for artifacts. In a hierarchical multiple regression, every year a baseball player debuted before the average age of 23.6 years was associated with life span being shortened by 0.24 years. The results support the hypothesis that earlier achievement is associated with earlier death.
我们针对美国职业棒球大联盟球员(N = 3,760)检验了麦肯的早熟-长寿假说,该假说提出职业生涯早期的成就与过早死亡有关。首次亮相的年龄被定义为早熟。我们控制了预期寿命选择的可能假象、“健康工人”效应、球员位置和体重指数。早熟与长寿之间存在统计学上显著的皮尔逊相关性,在对假象进行调整后仍具有显著性。在分层多元回归中,一名棒球运动员在23.6岁的平均年龄之前每提前一年首次亮相,其寿命就会缩短0.24岁。结果支持了早期成就与早逝相关的假说。