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[家庭调查样本中的方差估计方法]

[Variance estimation methods in samples from household surveys].

作者信息

Porto Alves Maria Cecilia Goi, Silva Nilza Nunes da

机构信息

Instituto de Saúde, Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brasil.

出版信息

Rev Saude Publica. 2007 Dec;41(6):938-46. doi: 10.1590/s0034-89102006005000051. Epub 2007 Dec 4.


DOI:10.1590/s0034-89102006005000051
PMID:17992355
Abstract

OBJECTIVE: Knowledge of sampling errors is essential for correctly interpreting the results from household surveys and evaluating their sampling designs. The composition of household samples used in surveys gives rise to situations of complex estimation. In this light, the study was conducted with the aim of evaluating the performance of the variance estimators in surveys carried out among urban populations in Brazil. METHODS: The reference population was the sample drawn by the Fundação Sistema Estadual de Análise de Dados Estatísticos (SEADE - State Statistical Data Analysis System Foundation) for carrying out an employment and unemployment survey in the metropolitan region of São Paulo. Three techniques were used for estimating variance: Taylor linearization and Jackknife and BRR replication. Repeated samples were selected from the reference population, using stratified cluster sampling in two stages (census tracts and households). Three different designs were used and 2,000 samples were drawn within each design. To obtain an estimator ratio, the accuracy of the variance estimators was evaluated by means of the mean square error and the confidence interval coverage. RESULTS: According to the mean square error, the three techniques provided similar accuracy. The bias ratios were approximately 0.10, for the smaller samples. The confidence interval coverage indicated that the confidence levels observed were lower than what was set (95%), and were around 90% for the smaller samples. CONCLUSIONS: The variance estimators showed similar performance with regard to accuracy and confidence interval coverage. The bias was irrelevant in relation to the magnitude of the standard error. Although the real confidence levels were lower than the nominal levels for normal distribution, the changes did not prevent construction of interval estimates with reasonable confidence.

摘要

目的:了解抽样误差对于正确解读家庭调查结果和评估其抽样设计至关重要。调查中使用的家庭样本构成会导致复杂的估计情况。鉴于此,开展本研究旨在评估巴西城市人口调查中方差估计量的性能。 方法:参考总体是由巴西圣保罗州数据分析系统基金会(SEADE)抽取的用于在圣保罗大都市区开展就业与失业调查的样本。使用了三种方差估计技术:泰勒线性化、刀切法和平衡半样本重复法。从参考总体中选取重复样本,采用两阶段分层整群抽样(普查区和家庭)。使用了三种不同设计,每种设计抽取2000个样本。为了获得估计量比率,通过均方误差和置信区间覆盖率评估方差估计量的准确性。 结果:根据均方误差,这三种技术提供了相似的准确性。对于较小样本,偏差比率约为0.10。置信区间覆盖率表明观察到的置信水平低于设定水平(95%),对于较小样本约为90%。 结论:方差估计量在准确性和置信区间覆盖率方面表现出相似的性能。偏差相对于标准误差的大小而言无关紧要。尽管实际置信水平低于正态分布的名义水平,但这些变化并不妨碍构建具有合理置信度的区间估计。

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