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根据法国蛋鸡舍的采样程序,对鸡群层面沙门氏菌属、肠炎沙门氏菌和鼠伤寒沙门氏菌检测敏感性的贝叶斯估计。

Bayesian estimation of flock-level sensitivity of detection of Salmonella spp., Enteritidis and Typhimurium according to the sampling procedure in French laying-hen houses.

作者信息

Mahé A, Bougeard S, Huneau-Salaün A, Le Bouquin S, Petetin I, Rouxel S, Lalande F, Beloeil P A, Rose N

机构信息

AFSSA-site de Ploufragan, BP 53, 22440 Ploufragan, France.

出版信息

Prev Vet Med. 2008 Apr 17;84(1-2):11-26. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.10.003. Epub 2007 Dec 4.

Abstract

A study was carried out to estimate the prevalence of flocks infected by Salmonella spp., S. Enteritidis and S. Typhimurium in 521 French laying-hen farms from October 1st 2004 to September 30th 2005 as part of a European Union-wide baseline study to define targets for Salmonella reduction in member states. The sampling scheme prescribed and financed by the European Commission to detect Salmonella in laying-hen flocks was based on 2 dust-samples and 5 faeces-samples per farm. A latent-class Bayesian approach for correlated tests was used to estimate the sensitivity of detection of reduced sampling schemes corresponding to the 16 combinations of 2 dust- and 5 faeces-samples. For each model the full sampling scheme (7 samples) and the reduced protocol were considered as two correlated tests, the biological principle being identical and the reduced protocol being a subset of the full sampling scheme. As the observed apparent prevalence in cage flocks was higher than in other systems (barns, outdoor, or organic) these two sub-populations were considered separately. Bayesian estimation of posterior medians with 95% probability intervals for true prevalence in cage flocks were 0.34 (0.29; 0.39) and 0.13 (0.10; 0.18) for Salmonella spp. and Salmonella Enteritidis+Typhimurium respectively. In alternative flocks posterior medians with 95% probability intervals for true prevalence were 0.09 (0.06; 0.13) and 0.05 (0.03; 0.08) for Salmonella spp. and Salmonella Enteritidis+Typhimurium, respectively. In cage flocks Bayesian estimation of posterior distributions for sensitivity indicated that at least 5 samples, including 2 dust samples were necessary to attain comparable sensitivity levels to the full sampling scheme. In alternative flocks and for Salmonella spp. 6 samples were required to ensure a comparable sensitivity level to the full sampling scheme. Detection sensitivity was improved by increasing the number of dust samples in cage farms and by increasing the total number of samples whatever their type in alternative farms.

摘要

作为欧盟范围内一项确定成员国沙门氏菌减少目标的基线研究的一部分,于2004年10月1日至2005年9月30日对法国521个蛋鸡养殖场进行了一项研究,以估计感染沙门氏菌属、肠炎沙门氏菌和鼠伤寒沙门氏菌的鸡群的流行率。欧盟委员会规定并资助的用于检测蛋鸡群中沙门氏菌的抽样方案是每个养殖场采集2份灰尘样本和5份粪便样本。采用一种用于相关检验的潜在类别贝叶斯方法来估计与2份灰尘样本和5份粪便样本的16种组合相对应的减少抽样方案的检测灵敏度。对于每个模型,完整抽样方案(7个样本)和简化方案被视为两个相关检验,生物学原理相同,简化方案是完整抽样方案的一个子集。由于观察到笼养蛋鸡群中的表观流行率高于其他养殖系统(鸡舍、户外或有机养殖),因此将这两个亚群体分开考虑。笼养蛋鸡群中沙门氏菌属和肠炎沙门氏菌+鼠伤寒沙门氏菌真实流行率的后验中位数的贝叶斯估计值及95%概率区间分别为0.34(0.29;0.39)和0.13(0.10;0.18)。在其他养殖类型的鸡群中,沙门氏菌属和肠炎沙门氏菌+鼠伤寒沙门氏菌真实流行率的后验中位数及95%概率区间分别为0.09(0.06;0.13)和0.05(0.03;0.08)。在笼养蛋鸡群中,对灵敏度的后验分布的贝叶斯估计表明,要达到与完整抽样方案相当的灵敏度水平,至少需要5个样本,包括2份灰尘样本。在其他养殖类型的鸡群中,对于沙门氏菌属,需要6个样本才能确保与完整抽样方案具有相当的灵敏度水平。通过增加笼养养殖场的灰尘样本数量以及增加其他养殖类型养殖场中无论何种类型的样本总数,检测灵敏度得到了提高。

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