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将特征与能量学和种群动态联系起来,以预测变化环境中的蜥蜴分布范围。

Linking traits to energetics and population dynamics to predict lizard ranges in changing environments.

作者信息

Buckley Lauren B

机构信息

Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, USA.

出版信息

Am Nat. 2008 Jan;171(1):E1-E19. doi: 10.1086/523949.

Abstract

I present a dynamic bioenergetic model that couples individual energetics and population dynamics to predict current lizard ranges and those following climate warming. The model predictions are uniquely based on first principles of morphology, life history, and thermal physiology. I apply the model to five populations of a widespread North American lizard, Sceloporus undulatus, to examine how geographic variation in traits and life histories influences ranges. This geographic variation reflects the potential for species to adapt to environmental change. I then consider the range dynamics of the closely related Sceloporus graciosus. Comparing predicted ranges and actual current ranges reveals how dispersal limitations, species interactions, and habitat requirements influence the occupied portions of thermally suitable ranges. The dynamic model predicts individualistic responses to a uniform 3 degrees C warming but a northward shift in the northern range boundary for all populations and species. In contrast to standard correlative climate envelope models, the extent of the predicted northward shift depends on organism traits and life histories. The results highlight the limitations of correlative models and the need for more dynamic models of species' ranges.

摘要

我提出了一个动态生物能量模型,该模型将个体能量学与种群动态相结合,以预测当前蜥蜴的分布范围以及气候变暖后的分布范围。模型预测独特地基于形态学、生活史和热生理学的第一原理。我将该模型应用于北美一种分布广泛的蜥蜴——东部强棱蜥(Sceloporus undulatus)的五个种群,以研究性状和生活史的地理变异如何影响分布范围。这种地理变异反映了物种适应环境变化的潜力。然后我考虑了亲缘关系密切的西部强棱蜥(Sceloporus graciosus)的分布动态。比较预测的分布范围和实际当前分布范围,可以揭示扩散限制、物种相互作用和栖息地需求如何影响热适宜范围内被占据的部分。动态模型预测了对均匀3摄氏度变暖的个体特异性反应,但所有种群和物种的北部分布边界都向北移动。与标准的相关气候包络模型不同,预测的向北移动程度取决于生物体的性状和生活史。结果突出了相关模型的局限性以及对物种分布范围建立更动态模型的必要性。

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