Do source-sink dynamics promote the spread of an invasive grass into a novel habitat?

Models of source-sink and other spatial patch dynamics have generated a number of ideas and predictions about species range expansion, the evolution of local adaptation, and the factors influencing population persistence, but relatively few empirical studies have applied these ideas due to the difficulty of measuring both patch-specific demography and movement rates. In this study, I used a combination of mark-recapture experiments, model fitting, and demographic approaches to ask how habitat-specific differences in population growth and dispersal affect spread of the invasive grass Aegilops triuncialis into serpentine environments. A. triuncialis germinated at lower rates but exhibited equivalent survival and greater growth in edge (extreme serpentine) than in core populations, even accounting for density differences between habitats. Estimated growth rates (lambda) for four of five edge subpopulations were strongly positive, ranging from lambda = 1.32 to 2.09 without propagule input from adjacent habitat. Local dispersal was best described by an exponential kernel, with a mean dispersal distance about twice as long on the edge (0.24-0.40 m) as in the core (0.18 m). Twenty-five percent of marked spikes in the edge were not relocated within the patch, suggesting greater rates of either seed predation or long-distance dispersal that reduced population growth. These results suggest that A. triuncialis can successfully spread into extreme serpentine habitats without sustained propagule input from adjacent populations. Further, asymmetric dispersal that may be both habitat- and density-dependent could slow growth rates on the edge. This pattern may also increase the importance of harsh edge patches as a source of long-distance dispersers.