Sensitivity analysis of non-point sources in a water quality model applied to a dammed low-flow-reach river.

Downstream of Capim Branco I hydroelectric dam (Minas Gerais state, Brazil), there is the need of keeping a minimum flow of 7 m3/s. This low flow reach (LFR) has a length of 9 km. In order to raise the water level in the low flow reach, the construction of intermediate dikes along the river bed was decided. The LFR has a tributary that receives the discharge of treated wastewater. As part of this study, water quality of the low-flow reach was modelled, in order to gain insight into its possible behaviour under different scenarios (without and with intermediate dikes). QUAL2E equations were implemented in FORTRAN code. The model takes into account point-source pollution and diffuse pollution. Uncertainty analysis was performed, presenting probabilistic results and allowing identification of the more important coefficients in the LFR water-quality model. The simulated results indicate, in general, very good conditions for most of the water quality parameters The variables of more influence found in the sensitivity analysis were the conversion coefficients (without and with dikes), the initial conditions in the reach (without dikes), the non-point incremental contributions (without dikes) and the hydraulic characteristics of the reach (with dikes).