Elkeles Robert S, Godsland Ian F, Feher Michael D, Rubens Michael B, Roughton Michael, Nugara Fiona, Humphries Steve E, Richmond William, Flather Marcus D
Endocrinology and Metabolic Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary's Hospital, London, UK.
Eur Heart J. 2008 Sep;29(18):2244-51. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehn279. Epub 2008 Jun 23.
AIMS: The PREDICT Study is a prospective cohort study designed to evaluate coronary artery calcification score (CACS) as a predictor of cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes (T2DM). METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 589 patients with no history of cardiovascular disease and with established T2DM had CACS measured, as well as risk factors, including plasma lipoprotein, apolipoprotein, homocysteine and C-reactive protein concentrations, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and urine albumin creatinine ratio. Participants were followed for a median of 4 years and first coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke events were identified as primary endpoints. There were 66 first cardiovascular events (including 10 strokes). CACS was a highly significant, independent predictor of events (P < 0.001), with a doubling in CACS being associated with a 32% increase in risk of events (29% after adjustment). Hazard ratios relative to CACS in the range 0-10 Agatston units (AU) were: CACS 11-100 AU, 5.4 (P = 0.02); 101-400 AU 10.5 (P = 0.001); 401-1000 AU, 11.9 (P = 0.001), and >1000 AU, 19.8 (P < 0.001). Only HOMA-IR predicted primary endpoints independently of CACS (P = 0.01). The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve for United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine primary endpoint risk and for UKPDS risk plus CACS were 0.63 and 0.73, respectively (P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Measurement of CACS is a powerful predictor of cardiovascular events in asymptomatic patients with T2DM and can further enhance prediction provided by established risk models.
目的:PREDICT研究是一项前瞻性队列研究,旨在评估冠状动脉钙化评分(CACS)作为2型糖尿病(T2DM)患者心血管事件预测指标的价值。 方法与结果:共有589例无心血管疾病病史且确诊为T2DM的患者接受了CACS测量,同时还检测了包括血浆脂蛋白、载脂蛋白、同型半胱氨酸和C反应蛋白浓度、稳态模型评估胰岛素抵抗(HOMA-IR)以及尿白蛋白肌酐比值等危险因素。参与者随访时间中位数为4年,首次冠心病(CHD)和中风事件被确定为主要终点。共有66例首次心血管事件(包括10例中风)。CACS是事件的高度显著独立预测指标(P<0.001),CACS翻倍与事件风险增加32%相关(调整后为29%)。相对于CACS在0至10阿加斯顿单位(AU)范围内的风险比为:CACS 11至100 AU,5.4(P=0.02);101至400 AU,10.5(P=0.001);401至1000 AU,11.9(P=0.001),以及>1000 AU,19.8(P<0.001)。只有HOMA-IR独立于CACS预测主要终点(P=0.01)。英国前瞻性糖尿病研究(UKPDS)风险引擎主要终点风险以及UKPDS风险加CACS的受试者工作特征曲线下面积分别为0.63和0.73(P=0.03)。 结论:测量CACS是无症状T2DM患者心血管事件的有力预测指标,并且可以进一步提高既定风险模型提供的预测能力。
Atherosclerosis. 2009-11-24
Diabetes Care. 2025-1-1
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2024
Commun Med (Lond). 2024-1-22
Diagnostics (Basel). 2024-1-5
Diabetes Care. 2024-1-1