Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score for predicting late esophageal varices rebleeding in cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Esophageal varices bleeding is a fatal complication of portal hypertension. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used as a tool to predict mortality risk in cirrhotic patients. It is currently unknown if MELD score can be applied to predicting late esophageal varices rebleeding. The predictive ability of the MELD score for short-term esophageal varices rebleeding was studied.

METHODOLOGY

Ninety-five cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices bleeding were enrolled with a follow up period of at least 3 months. All patients had undergone a successful hemostasis at admission. Initial admission MELD score and 3-months MELD were obtained to observe their correlation with the late esophageal varices rebleeding.

RESULTS

MELD score of 13 and 16 are the mean MELD score of the admission and 3-months respectively in the rebleeding group. The correlation between initial admission MELD score and late stage data showed a positive linear regression in the rebleeding patients (p=0.001, r=0.773) but not in the non-rebleeding group.

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD score is a good predictor of short term esophageal varices rebleeding rate. At least 2 MELD score data is needed to evaluate the possibilities of rebleeding