Neyens David M, Donmez Birsen, Boyle Linda Ng
Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA.
J Safety Res. 2008;39(4):383-90. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2008.05.006. Epub 2008 Aug 3.
Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs vary in the United States in terms of implementation and restrictions. The State of Iowa's GDL program is assessed for its effectiveness in reducing crashes among teenage drivers.
Time series analysis was used to evaluate police documented crashes involving 16-, 17-, and 18-year-old drivers over a 10 year period, with an intervention identified at the point of GDL implementation.
After controlling for seasonal trends and auto-correlative effects, a significant reduction in the crash rate of and 16- and 17-year-old drivers was observed due to the GDL implementation. However, there were no significant reductions in crash rates for 18-year-old drivers.
The analyses suggest that the Iowa GDL program is effective in reducing the crash rates of 16- and 17-year-old drivers but the effects do not sustain for 18-year-old drivers.
The results suggest that the program appears to be working, however further analysis is needed to determine what factors are preventing lasting effects for these teenage drivers.
美国的分级驾驶员执照(GDL)计划在实施方式和限制方面各不相同。对爱荷华州的GDL计划在减少青少年驾驶员事故方面的有效性进行评估。
采用时间序列分析来评估警方记录的在10年期间涉及16岁、17岁和18岁驾驶员的事故,在GDL实施点确定为一项干预措施。
在控制季节性趋势和自相关效应后,观察到由于GDL的实施,16岁和17岁驾驶员的事故率显著降低。然而,18岁驾驶员的事故率没有显著降低。
分析表明,爱荷华州的GDL计划在降低16岁和17岁驾驶员的事故率方面是有效的,但对18岁驾驶员的影响并不持久。
结果表明该计划似乎有效,但需要进一步分析以确定哪些因素阻碍了对这些青少年驾驶员产生持久影响。