Long-term mortality and risk of stroke after transient ischemic attack: a hospital-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND

Stroke and mortality rates in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) differ widely between community-based studies and research cohorts. Our aim therefore was to provide a reliable estimate for TIA patients treated in German neurology departments with an acute stroke unit.

METHODS

A total of 1951 consecutively admitted TIA patients were prospectively documented in 13 centers and 1480 (75.9%) gave consent for long-term follow-up. During a mean follow-up of 23.4 months, we assessed recurrent cerebrovascular events and cause of death in 1448 patients via standardized telephone interview including confirmation of endpoint events by the treating physician.

RESULTS

Overall 94 patients (6.5%) suffered a stroke and 118 patients (8.1%) died, 21 due to stroke. The Kaplan-Meier estimate for stroke during the first year was 4.4% (95% CI 3.2-5.6%) which corresponds to a relative risk of 9.5 (95% CI 7.4-12.3) compared to the population-based stroke incidence in Germany. The annual rates after the first year were 2.2% (95% CI 1.7-2.7%) for stroke and 3.2% (95% CI 2.7-3.8%) for death. Independent predictors for stroke during follow-up were age and previous cerebrovascular events. The ABCD(2) score did not provide any meaningful prediction of stroke risk at 90 days.

CONCLUSION

While the in-hospital risk of stroke was low, long-term stroke rates in our well-defined multicenter hospital-based cohort were comparable to a large randomized trial. In patients with a well-established diagnosis of TIA, only age and previous cerebrovascular events seem to constitute independent predictors for stroke during long-term follow-up.