University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Herston, Australia.
Med Decis Making. 2009 Jul-Aug;29(4):500-2. doi: 10.1177/0272989X09340585. Epub 2009 Jul 1.
The half-cycle correction is often used in discrete Markov models to estimate state membership. This article shows that the correction, in addition to being unintuitive, actually produces the wrong results in many circumstances. These include quality-adjusted life year (QALY) weights and unit costs that differ by cycle. The half-cycle correction is also incompatible with discounting of the obtained stream of state membership. It is furthermore shown that the life table method of estimating state membership obtains correct results under these circumstances and is also much more transparent. The article concludes that the half-cycle correction should be dropped in favor of the life table method.
半周期校正通常用于离散马尔可夫模型来估计状态成员。本文表明,除了不直观之外,在许多情况下,校正实际上会产生错误的结果。这些包括质量调整生命年 (QALY) 权重和周期不同的单位成本。半周期校正也与获得的状态成员流的贴现不兼容。此外,还表明在这些情况下,使用生命表法来估计状态成员可以获得正确的结果,并且也更加透明。本文的结论是,应该放弃半周期校正,转而采用生命表法。