Department of Political Science, Baylor University, PO Box 97276, Waco, TX 76798-7276, USA.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2009 Oct 27;364(1532):3081-92. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2009.0151.
This study analyses the relationship between war and population. The impact of the growth and decline of population on important types of warfare--great power, small power, civil war as well as terrorism--is illustrated, with the objective in each case to be descriptive of risk. I find that population change has a significant impact on each, with the greatest causal impact on small power conflicts, civil war and upon terrorism. I conclude with some reasons for guarded optimism about the incorporation of population as a component of analysis in the discipline of international studies, and for the potential to devise new solutions to prevent conflict.
本研究分析了战争与人口之间的关系。说明了人口增长和减少对重要战争类型——大国战争、小国战争、内战和恐怖主义——的影响,目的是描述风险。我发现人口变化对每种战争都有重大影响,对小国战争、内战和恐怖主义的因果影响最大。最后,我对将人口作为国际研究学科分析的一个组成部分持谨慎乐观的态度,并对设计预防冲突的新解决方案持潜在的乐观态度。