Centre for Evolutionary Biology, School of Animal Biology, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia. nicola.mitchell @ cyllene.uwa.edu.au
Sex Dev. 2010;4(1-2):129-40. doi: 10.1159/000282494. Epub 2010 Feb 9.
Whether species that have persisted throughout historic climatic upheavals will survive contemporary climate change will depend on their ecological and physiological traits, their evolutionary potential, and potentially upon the resources that humans commit to prevent their extinction. For those species where temperatures influence sex determination, rapid global warming poses a unique risk of skewed sex ratios and demographic collapse. Here we review the specific mechanisms by which reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) may be imperilled at current rates of warming, and discuss the evidence for and against adaptation via behavioural or physiological means. We propose a scheme for ranking reptiles with TSD according to their vulnerability to rapid global warming, but note that critical data on the lability of the sex determining mechanism and on the heritability of behavioural and threshold traits are unavailable for most species. Nevertheless, we recommend a precautionary approach to management of reptiles identified as being at relatively high risk. In such cases, management should aim to neutralise directional sex ratio biases (e.g. by manipulating incubation temperatures or assisted migration) and promote adaptive processes, possibly by genetic supplementation of populations. These practices should aid species' persistence and buy time for research directed at more accurate prediction of species' vulnerability.
在历史气候剧变中幸存下来的物种是否能在当代气候变化中存活下来，将取决于它们的生态和生理特征、进化潜力，以及人类为防止物种灭绝而投入的资源。对于那些温度影响性别决定的物种来说，快速的全球变暖带来了性别比例失衡和种群崩溃的独特风险。在这里，我们回顾了温度依赖型性别决定（TSD）的爬行动物可能在当前变暖速度下受到威胁的具体机制，并讨论了通过行为或生理手段适应的证据和反对意见。我们提出了一个根据快速全球变暖对 TSD 爬行动物的脆弱性进行排名的方案，但请注意，大多数物种的性别决定机制的不稳定性以及行为和阈值特征的遗传性的关键数据尚不可用。尽管如此，我们建议对被认为风险相对较高的爬行动物采取预防措施。在这种情况下，管理的目的应该是中和定向的性别比例偏差（例如，通过操纵孵化温度或辅助迁移），并促进适应性过程，可能通过种群的遗传补充。这些做法应该有助于物种的生存，并为更准确地预测物种的脆弱性的研究争取时间。
