Gibbs Andrew, Pearse E James, Jayasinha Hirani, Sheehan Jennifer A, Meleady Kathleen T, Jones Neill
Health Policy Analysis Pty Ltd, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Aust Health Rev. 2009 Nov;33(4):601-10. doi: 10.1071/ah090601.
We describe the development of a method for estimating and modelling future demand for sub- and non-acute inpatient activity across New South Wales, Australia to 2016. A time series linear regression equation was used, which is consistent with projection models found in the literature. Results of the modelling indicated an increase in rehabilitation, palliative care and maintenance episodes and bed-days. Projections for other categories of care are problematic due to smaller levels of activity and data quality issues. This project indicated a need for ongoing monitoring of type-changing by facilities and management of data quality. Local planners will need to consider a range of factors when considering the applicability activity projections at a local level, particularly within the specific age and clinical groupings.
我们描述了一种用于估计和模拟到2016年澳大利亚新南威尔士州亚急性和非急性住院患者活动未来需求的方法的开发过程。使用了时间序列线性回归方程，这与文献中发现的预测模型一致。建模结果表明康复、姑息治疗和维持治疗的发作次数及住院天数有所增加。由于活动水平较低和数据质量问题，其他护理类别的预测存在问题。该项目表明需要持续监测机构的类型变化以及数据质量的管理。当地规划者在考虑地方层面活动预测的适用性时，特别是在特定年龄和临床分组内，需要考虑一系列因素。
