Militana Erika, Wolfson Elissa, Cleaveland J Mark
Vassar College, United States.
Behav Processes. 2010 May;84(1):455-9. doi: 10.1016/j.beproc.2010.02.010. Epub 2010 Feb 20.
The gambler's fallacy is defined as the avoidance of a winning outcome in a stochastic environment with a constant probability. We tested the possibility that the gambler's fallacy in humans is responsive to the amount of time between choice allocations. Two groups of subjects were placed in a six-choice betting game in which the choices were clustered into two "patches." Groups were defined by the length of time - 2s or 6s - between trials. On any given trial subjects allocated six points among the alternatives, and retained any points that were bet on the winning alternative. Both groups showed evidence of the gambler's fallacy bias. However, the bias was stronger in the 6-s ITI group than in the 2-s ITI group. This difference was found primarily to be due to differences in the number of subjects showing an opposing bias to the gambler's fallacy, namely a preference for the most recent winning alternative. This choice bias is termed the hot hand fallacy. Our findings contradict predictions derived from a foraging heuristic and from traditional accounts of the gambler's fallacy.
赌徒谬误被定义为在概率恒定的随机环境中避免获胜结果。我们测试了人类的赌徒谬误是否会对选择分配之间的时间量做出反应。两组受试者被置于一个六选一的投注游戏中,其中选择被聚集成两个“区域”。根据试验之间的时间长度——2秒或6秒——来定义组。在任何给定的试验中,受试者在备选方案之间分配六个点,并保留投注在获胜备选方案上的任何点数。两组都显示出赌徒谬误偏差的证据。然而,6秒间隔时间组的偏差比2秒间隔时间组更强。发现这种差异主要是由于表现出与赌徒谬误相反偏差(即偏好最近的获胜备选方案)的受试者数量不同。这种选择偏差被称为热手谬误。我们的发现与从觅食启发式和传统的赌徒谬误解释中得出的预测相矛盾。
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