[Decrease of early insulin secretion, risk factor of insulin-dependent diabetes. Prospective study in families with diabetic children].

In order to study the capacity of the first phase insulin response (FPIR) for predicting insulin-dependent diabetes (IDDM), we have performed one or more intravenous glucose tolerance tests (IVGTT) and determined islet-cell antibodies (ICA) and HLA-types in 220 first degree relatives of IDDM patients (194 siblings, 26 offsprings) aged 2 to 29 years. They were prospectively followed for periods ranging from 18 months to 8 years. The immunological and metabolic changes in 9 subjects who have developed IDDM or impaired glucose tolerance during the study and in 3 ICA-positive non-diabetic subjects were compared to those in ICA-negative subjects. Although the mean FPIR (1 + 3 min. plasma insulin) was significantly lower in ICA-positive compared with ICA-negative subjects, a unique low FPIR had no predictive value at the individual level. At repeated tests, the two groups followed distinctive evolutive patterns: ICA-negative subjects usually had higher FPIRs at a 2nd test, while FPIRs remained low or still decreased in ICA-positive subjects. Follow-up of subjects at high risk showed good concordance between the different predictive factors: among the 9 subjects who have developed IDDM, 7 had persisting ICA, 8 were HLA-DR3, DR4; the FPIR was consistently low in 3 and low at least once in 4. Progressive loss of the FPIR allowing to predict the time of onset of IDDM, was not observed.