Prognostic factors of multiple sclerosis in Lebanon.

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) has a variable disease course. Identifying early predictive prognostic factors is of paramount importance. Most of the data on these factors however comes from studies performed in western countries. Such data is lacking in the Arab World. The objective of this study is to identify early predictors of disability among MS patients in Lebanon.

METHODS

75 relapsing-remitting MS patients with 5 year follow-up from disease onset were selected from Project MS Lebanon database. The following parameters were studied as potential causes of early disability as defined by an EDSS > or = 3, after five years from disease onset: age at onset of MS, gender, interval between first and second attack, residual deficit after first attack, initial symptoms, treatment for at least 1 year in the first 5 years, and the number of relapses in the first 2 and 5 years.

RESULTS

Patients with incomplete recovery from the first relapse were 11.66 times more likely to have a higher EDSS after 5 years (CI = 2.02-67.31, p = .001). Furthermore, the number of relapses during the first 5 years was also an independent predictor of EDSS > or = 3 at 5 years (p = .024). Other factors were not shown to predict a worse outcome.

CONCLUSION

Overall, early predictors of disability in MS among the Lebanese population were not very different from similar predictors in western countries.