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夏令时变化对股票市场波动性的影响。

Effects of daylight savings time changes on stock market volatility.

作者信息

Berument M Hakan, Dogan Nukhet, Onar Bahar

机构信息

Department of Economics, Bilkent University, Ankara 06533, Turkey.

出版信息

Psychol Rep. 2010 Apr;106(2):632-40. doi: 10.2466/pr0.106.2.632-640.

Abstract

The presence of daylight savings time effects on stock returns and on stock volatility was investigated using an EGARCH specification to model the conditional variance. The evidence gathered from the major United States stock markets for the period between 1967 and 2007 did not support the existence of the daylight savings time effect on stock returns or on volatility. Returns on the first business day following daylight savings time changes were not lower nor was the volatility higher, as would be expected if there were an effect.

摘要

利用指数广义自回归条件异方差(EGARCH)模型来模拟条件方差,研究了夏令时对股票回报和股票波动性的影响。从1967年至2007年期间美国主要股票市场收集的证据并不支持夏令时对股票回报或波动性有影响这一观点。夏令时变更后的第一个工作日的回报并不更低,波动性也没有如预期的那样更高(如果存在影响的话)。

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