Kinay B
MSGSU, Faculty of Science and Letters, Department of Statistics, Istanbul.
Bull Soc Sci Med Grand Duche Luxemb. 2010;Spec No 1(1):119-33.
Nowadays, as a result of the global competition encountered, numerous companies come up against financial distresses. To predict and take proactive approaches for those problems is quite important. Thus, the prediction of crisis and financial distress is essential in terms of revealing the financial condition of companies. In this study, financial ratios relating to 156 industrial firms that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange are used and probabilities of financial distress are predicted by means of an ordered logit regression model. By means of Altman's Z Score, the dependent variable is composed by scaling the level of risk. Thus, a model that can compose an early warning system and predict financial distress is proposed.
如今，由于面临全球竞争，众多公司陷入财务困境。对这些问题进行预测并采取积极措施非常重要。因此，危机和财务困境的预测对于揭示公司的财务状况至关重要。在本研究中，使用了与在伊斯坦布尔证券交易所上市的156家工业公司相关的财务比率，并通过有序逻辑回归模型预测财务困境的概率。通过奥特曼Z值评分法，因变量由风险水平的缩放构成。因此，提出了一个能够构建早期预警系统并预测财务困境的模型。
