Guo Rui, Bu Ren-cang, Hu Yuan-man, Chang Yu, He Hong-shi, Liu Xiao-mei, Zhang Zhi-quan
Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2010 Jul;21(7):1681-8.
By using the spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS 6.0 PRO), the percentages of timber-harvesting area in Xiao Xing' anling Mountains under current harvesting scenario and under 11 harvesting scenarios with alternating harvesting intensities (alternating time was 10, 20 and 30 years, respectively) in 2000-2400 under climate change were simulated. Alternating harvesting intensity could increase the harvesting area. Comparing with current harvesting scenario, the simulated scenarios could increase the harvesting area by 3%-5% at short term (10-30 years), 2.5%-7% at medium term (40-60 years), and 3.5%-8% at long term (70-100 years). On the whole, the current total harvesting area was still high. Alternating harvesting-intensity could increase the harvesting area within a definite term, but the effect would be unsustainable. To have a sustainable development of forestry in the study area, it is necessary to reduce the harvesting intensity and change the forest management policy.
利用空间明确的森林景观模型（LANDIS 6.0 PRO），模拟了气候变化下小兴安岭地区在当前采伐情景以及2000年至2400年11种采伐强度交替（交替时间分别为10年、20年和30年）的采伐情景下木材采伐面积的百分比。交替采伐强度可增加采伐面积。与当前采伐情景相比，模拟情景在短期（10 - 30年）可使采伐面积增加3% - 5%，中期（40 - 60年）增加2.5% - 7%，长期（70 - 100年）增加3.5% - 8%。总体而言，当前的总采伐面积仍然较高。交替采伐强度在一定时期内可增加采伐面积，但这种效果不可持续。为实现研究区域林业的可持续发展，有必要降低采伐强度并改变森林管理政策。
