利用水文、昆虫学和疟疾传播模拟器（HYDREMATS）对非洲农村地区疟疾传播的潜在风险进行早期预警。
Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS).
机构信息
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
出版信息
Malar J. 2010 Nov 12;9:323. doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-9-323.
BACKGROUND
Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics.
METHODS
HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future.
RESULTS
Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.
CONCLUSIONS
HYDREMATS can be used to make reasonable predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, and provide early warnings of the potential for malaria epidemics in Africa.
背景
疟疾传播的早期预警可以让卫生官员更好地为未来的疫情做准备。监测降雨量被认为是疟疾早期预警系统的重要组成部分。水文学、昆虫学和疟疾模拟器（HYDREMATS）是一种将降雨量与疟疾传播联系起来的机械模型，可用于提供疟疾疫情的早期预警。
方法
HYDREMATS 用于预测尼日尔西部 Banizoumbou 村 2005 年、2006 年和 2007 年的蚊子种群和媒介能力。HYDREMATS 由观测到的降雨量驱动，然后根据未来两到四周的季节性平均降雨量进行降雨量预测。
结果
使用这种方法进行的预测提前两到四周提供了蚊子种群和媒介能力的合理估计。与仅使用季节性平均降雨量驱动 HYDREMATS 进行的预测相比，预测结果得到了显著改善。
结论
HYDREMATS 可用于对蚊子种群和媒介能力进行合理预测，并为非洲疟疾疫情的潜在爆发提供早期预警。
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