University of Denver.
Popul Dev Rev. 2010;36(4):655-92. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00353.x.
In June 1986, Population and Development Review published a highly influential article by John Caldwell entitled “Routes to Low Mortality in Poor Countries.” Amid growing anxiety over decelerating world mortality decline, Caldwell explored social and political pathways to mortality success on the basis of two lists of superior mortality achievers and exceptionally poor mortality achievers, countries whose mortality rankings drastically differed from their income rankings. To mark the quarter-century since Caldwell's study and chart new pathways, this article looks at the subsequent performance of Caldwell's original exceptional achievers and develops an updated list of achievers. Analysis highlights the presence of many more poor achievers today; the rising importance of adult mortality as a marker of exceptional achievement; the increasing success of countries in Latin America and the Muslim world; the continued success of China, Vietnam, Cuba, and Costa Rica. dramatic improvements in schooling outcomes, particularly for women, have reduced the importance of education as a determinant of superior achievement. Reinforcing Caldwell's original assertions, the synthesis highlights how interactions between social consensus, health care systems, and human capital dependence offer a pathway to superior achievement. These forces may be especially powerful at moments of national crisis.
1986 年 6 月,《人口与发展评论》发表了约翰·考德威尔(John Caldwell)的一篇极具影响力的文章,题为“贫穷国家实现低死亡率的途径”。在人们对世界死亡率下降放缓的担忧日益加剧之际,考德威尔(Caldwell)基于死亡率表现出色和表现极差的两类国家名单,探索了实现死亡率成功的社会和政治途径,这些国家的死亡率排名与收入排名差异巨大。为纪念考德威尔研究发表 25 周年,并探索新途径,本文回顾了考德威尔原始杰出成就者的后续表现,并制定了一份更新的成就者名单。分析强调了如今有更多的贫穷国家表现出色;成人死亡率作为杰出成就标志的重要性日益增加;拉丁美洲和穆斯林世界国家的成功不断增加;中国、越南、古巴和哥斯达黎加的持续成功。学校教育成果,特别是妇女教育成果的显著改善,降低了教育作为决定优异表现的决定因素的重要性。该综合分析强调了社会共识、医疗保健系统和人力资本依赖之间的相互作用如何为优异表现提供了一条途径,这强化了考德威尔最初的断言。这些力量在国家危机时刻可能尤其强大。