University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and East-West Center, Honolulu.
Popul Dev Rev. 2010;36(4):725-48. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00355.x.
The child-care and fertility hypothesis has been in the literature for a long time and is straightforward: As child care becomes more available, affordable, and acceptable, the antinatalist effects of increased female educational attainment and work opportunities decrease. As an increasing number of countries express concern about low fertility, the child-care and fertility hypothesis takes on increased importance. Yet data and statistical limitations have heretofore limited empirical tests of the hypothesis. Using rich longitudinal data and appropriate statistical methodology, We show that increased availability of child care increases completed fertility. Moreover, this positive effect of child-care availability is found at every parity transition. We discuss the generalizability of these results to other settings and their broader importance for understanding variation and trends in low fertility.
儿童保育和生育假说在文献中已经存在很长时间了，其内容很直接：随着儿童保育变得更加易得、负担得起和被接受，女性受教育程度提高和工作机会增加所产生的反生育效果会减弱。随着越来越多的国家对低生育率表示担忧，儿童保育和生育假说变得更加重要。然而，数据和统计限制此前一直限制了对该假说的实证检验。我们使用丰富的纵向数据和适当的统计方法，表明儿童保育可用性的增加会提高生育完成率。此外，在每个生育阶段都可以发现儿童保育可用性的这种积极影响。我们讨论了这些结果在其他环境中的普遍性及其对理解低生育率变化和趋势的更广泛重要性。
