School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK.
Sci Total Environ. 2011 May 15;409(12):2404-18. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.02.038. Epub 2011 Apr 1.
Recent research in catchments of rapidly developing countries such as Brazil and China suggests that many catchments of the developing world are already showing signs of nitrogen pollution reminiscent of past experiences in developed countries. This paper looks at both the individual and combined effects of future climate change and other likely environmental changes on in-stream nitrate concentrations in a catchment in Northern Turkey. A model chain comprised of simulated future temperature and precipitation from a Regional Circulation Model (RCM), a conceptual hydrological model (HBV) and a widely tested integrated catchment nitrogen model (INCA-N) is used to model future changes in nitrate concentrations. Two future periods (2021-2050 and 2069-2098) are compared to the 1961-1990 baseline period in order to assess the effectiveness of several possible interventions available to catchment authorities. The simulations show that in the urbanised part of the catchment, the effects of climate change and other environmental changes act in the same direction, leading to peak nitrate concentrations of 7.5 mg N/l for the 2069-2098 period, which corresponds to a doubling of the baseline values. Testing different available policy options reveals that the installation of wastewater treatment works (WWTWs) in all major settlements of the catchment could ensure nitrate levels are kept at near their baseline values for the 2021-2050 period. Nevertheless, a combination of measures including WWTWs, meadow creation, international agreements to reduce atmospheric N concentrations and controls on agricultural practises will be required for 2069-2098. The approach presented in this article could be employed in order to anticipate future pollution problems and to test appropriate solutions, some of which will necessitate international co-operation, in other catchments around the world.
最近在巴西和中国等快速发展国家的流域进行的研究表明，发展中国家的许多流域已经出现了类似于发达国家过去经历的氮污染迹象。本文探讨了未来气候变化和其他可能的环境变化对土耳其北部一个流域内河流硝酸盐浓度的单独和综合影响。一个由区域循环模型（RCM）模拟的未来温度和降水、一个概念性水文模型（HBV）和一个经过广泛测试的综合流域氮模型（INCA-N）组成的模型链用于模拟硝酸盐浓度的未来变化。将两个未来时期（2021-2050 年和 2069-2098 年）与 1961-1990 年基准期进行比较，以评估流域当局可采取的几种可能干预措施的效果。模拟结果表明，在流域的城市化部分，气候变化和其他环境变化的影响方向相同，导致 2069-2098 年期间硝酸盐浓度峰值达到 7.5 毫克氮/升，是基准值的两倍。测试不同的现有政策选择表明，在流域的所有主要定居点安装废水处理厂（WWTWs）可以确保硝酸盐水平在 2021-2050 年期间接近其基准值。然而，在 2069-2098 年期间，需要采取包括废水处理厂、草地建设、减少大气 N 浓度的国际协议和农业实践控制在内的综合措施。本文提出的方法可用于预测未来的污染问题，并测试在世界其他流域适用的适当解决方案，其中一些解决方案将需要国际合作。
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