Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, University Pablo de Olavide, Utrera Rd. Km 1, 41013, Seville, Spain.
Environ Monit Assess. 2012 Jan;184(2):797-810. doi: 10.1007/s10661-011-2002-1. Epub 2011 Apr 4.
Medina playa lake, a Ramsar site in western Andalusia, is a brackish lowland lake of 120 ha with an average depth of 1 m. Water flows into Medina from its 1,748-ha watershed, but the hydrology of the lake has not previously been studied. This paper describes the application of a water budget model on a monthly scale over a 6-year period, based on a conceptual hydrological model, and considers different future scenarios after calibration to improve the understanding of the lake's hydrological functioning. Climatic variables from a nearby weather station and observational data (water-level evolution) were used to develop the model. Comparison of measured and predicted values demonstrated that each model component provided a reasonable output with a realistic interaction among the components. The model was then used to explore the potential consequences of land-use changes. Irrigation of olive groves would significantly reduce both the hydroperiod (becoming dry 15% of the time) and the average depth of the lake (water level <0.5 m 40% of the time). On the other hand, removal of an artificial overflow would double the average flooded surface area during high-water periods. The simulated water balance demonstrates that the catchment outputs are dominated by lake evaporation and surface outflow from the lake system to a creek. Discrepancies between predicted and observed water levels identify key areas of uncertainty for future empirical research. The study provides an improved basis for future hydrological management of the catchment and demonstrates the wider utility of this methodology in simulating this kind of system. This methodology provides a realistic appraisal of potential land-use management practices on a catchment-wide scale and allows predictions of the consequences of climate change.
梅迪纳海滩湖是位于西班牙安达卢西亚西部的一个拉姆萨尔湿地，是一个 120 公顷的咸水低地湖泊，平均水深 1 米。水从其 1748 公顷的集水区流入梅迪纳，但该湖的水文学以前从未研究过。本研究应用一个月尺度的水量平衡模型，基于一个概念性水文模型，考虑了不同的未来情景进行校准，以提高对湖泊水文功能的理解。利用附近气象站的气候变量和观测数据（水位演变）来开发模型。实测值与预测值的比较表明，每个模型组成部分都提供了合理的输出，并且组成部分之间具有现实的相互作用。然后，该模型被用于探索土地利用变化的潜在后果。橄榄园的灌溉将显著减少湖泊的水期（有 15%的时间干涸）和平均水深（有 40%的时间水位<0.5 米）。另一方面，人工溢洪道的移除将使高水位期间的平均淹没面积增加一倍。模拟的水量平衡表明，流域输出主要由湖泊蒸发和湖泊系统向溪流的地表流出所决定。预测水位与实测水位之间的差异确定了未来经验研究的关键不确定性领域。该研究为流域未来的水文管理提供了更好的基础，并展示了该方法在模拟这种系统方面的更广泛应用。该方法对流域范围内的潜在土地利用管理实践进行了现实评估，并允许预测气候变化的后果。
