The Kirby Institute, UNSW Cliffbrook Campus, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
AIDS Behav. 2012 Feb;16(2):360-7. doi: 10.1007/s10461-011-9969-z.
The objective of the current study is to describe the impact of Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on trends in AIDS incidence over time for selected population groups in Australia, specifically, men who have sex with men (MSM) and injecting drug users (IDUs). A modified back-projection modeling technique was used to predict the number of AIDS diagnoses without cART based on Australia's HIV/AIDS surveillance system database. Modelled estimates indicate that since 1996, the effective cART has reduced overall AIDS cases by ~70 and ~10% among MSM and IDUs respectively. The predicted reduction in AIDS cases among IDUs aged less than 40 years was 36% while there was no reduction predicted for those aged 40 years or older. The impact of cART on AIDS diagnoses has been modest among IDUs. Late presentation, poor access to health services and barriers to uptake of cART may account for the divergence between these population groups.
本研究的目的在于描述联合抗逆转录病毒疗法（cART）对澳大利亚特定人群组（即男男性行为者和注射吸毒者）艾滋病发病率随时间变化趋势的影响。我们使用改良回溯预测模型技术，根据澳大利亚的艾滋病毒/艾滋病监测系统数据库预测未接受 cART 治疗的艾滋病诊断数量。模型估计表明，自 1996 年以来，有效的 cART 使艾滋病总病例数减少了约 70%，男男性行为者和注射吸毒者分别减少了约 10%。在年龄小于 40 岁的注射吸毒者中，预计艾滋病病例减少 36%，而在年龄 40 岁或以上的注射吸毒者中，预计没有减少。cART 对艾滋病诊断的影响在注射吸毒者中相对较小。晚期发病、获得卫生服务的机会有限以及接受 cART 的障碍可能是这些人群组之间存在差异的原因。
