Jg Bauer, S Spackman, J Dong, N Garrett
UCLA School of Dentistry, Division of Restorative Dentistry, June and Paul Ehrlich Endowed Program in Geriatric Dentistry, 23-008E CHS, PO Box 951668, 10833 Le Conte Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90095-1668, USA.
Open Dent J. 2010;4:124-32. doi: 10.2174/1874210601004010124. Epub 2010 Jul 16.
Compared to younger adults, older adults are at greater risk for root caries. A model of root caries may assist dentists in predicting disease outcomes.
Using the Iowa 65+ Oral Health Survey, analysis was done to model the patterns of the root caries development in older adults.
The statistical analysis included Markov chain modeling, model estimation and validation.
The model effectively predicts root caries using an 18-month predictive cycle and is validated up to 36 months (two cycles), with no significant differences (Chi-square test p-values >0.1) between predicted and observed distributions. However, we do not have observed data for validation beyond 36 months since the model was designed to perform only at single or multiple 18-month cycles. As expected, the predicted distribution at 54-month (3 cycles) and the observed distribution at 60-month differed significantly (p<0.0001).
The model demonstrated a high probability that a sound surface will remain caries free. However, one and multiple-surface lesions aggressively infect adjoining surfaces. Maturing of the carious lesion occurs with the 4-surface lesion, decreasing the probability of tooth loss. Thus, maintaining a sound root surface and early treatment intervention reduces the risk of tooth dysfunction (morphological destruction) and loss. DATABASE FILTERS: P: Tooth/Subject characteristics-Older adults, 65 years of age or more, male and female participants, regional rural Iowa residents, race unspecified, functional status-non-institutionalized level unspecified, risk level unspecified I: Root caries P (C-not applicable): Probability/Statistical significance for decision data only/Clinical significance-dataset over 20 years old/Utility data not included/Cost data not included/Meaning in practice undetermined. O: Each year through a three year cycle, caries progression from a sound root surface A: Data attached: ■ Published manuscript □ Unpublished manuscript □ Raw data R: Primary author contact information present.
与年轻成年人相比，老年人患根龋的风险更高。根龋模型可能有助于牙医预测疾病结果。
利用爱荷华65岁及以上口腔健康调查，进行分析以建立老年人根龋发展模式的模型。
统计分析包括马尔可夫链建模、模型估计和验证。
该模型使用18个月的预测周期有效预测根龋，并在长达36个月（两个周期）内得到验证，预测分布与观察分布之间无显著差异（卡方检验p值>0.1）。然而，由于该模型仅设计用于单个或多个18个月周期，我们没有36个月以上的观察数据用于验证。正如预期的那样，54个月（3个周期）的预测分布与60个月的观察分布有显著差异（p<0.0
该模型表明健全表面保持无龋的可能性很高。然而，单表面和多表面病变会积极感染相邻表面。龋损随着4表面病变而成熟，并降低牙齿脱落的可能性。因此，保持健全的根面和早期治疗干预可降低牙齿功能障碍（形态破坏）和脱落的风险。
牙齿/受试者特征——老年人，65岁及以上，男性和女性参与者，爱荷华州农村地区居民，种族未指定，功能状态——非机构化水平未指定，风险水平未指定
根龋
P（C-不适用）：仅用于决策数据的概率/统计显著性/临床显著性——数据集超过20年历史/未包括效用数据/未包括成本数据/实际意义未确定
通过三年周期的每年，健全根面的龋病进展
附加数据：■已发表手稿□未发表手稿□原始数据
提供了第一作者联系信息
