Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, P.O. Box 32, H-1518 Budapest, Hungary.
J Environ Radioact. 2011 Dec;102(12):1117-21. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.07.010.
The Chernobyl accident and unfortunately the recent accident at the Fukushima 1 Nuclear Power Plant are the most serious accidents in the history of the nuclear technology and industry. Both of them have a huge and prolonged impact on environment as well as human health. Therefore, any technological developments and strategies that could diminish the consequences of such unfortunate events are undisputedly the most important issues of research. Numerical simulations of dispersion of radionuclides in the atmosphere after an accidental release can provide with a reliable prediction of the path of the plume. In this study we present a short (one month) and a long (11 years) term statistical study for the Fukushima 1 Nuclear Power Plant to estimate the most probable dispersion directions and plume structures of radionuclides on local scale using a Gaussian dispersion model. We analyzed the differences in plume directions and structures in case of typical weather/circulation pattern and provided a statistical-climatological method for a "first-guess" approximation of the dispersion of toxic substances. The results and the described method can support and used by decision makers in such important cases like the Fukushima accident.
切尔诺贝利事故和不幸的是，最近的福岛第一核电站事故是核技术和工业史上最严重的事故。这两个事件都对环境和人类健康产生了巨大而持久的影响。因此，任何可以减少此类不幸事件后果的技术发展和策略无疑都是研究的最重要问题。核素在大气中扩散的意外释放后的数值模拟可以提供可靠的预测烟羽的路径。在这项研究中，我们提出了一个短期（一个月）和一个长期（11 年）的福岛第一核电站的统计研究，以使用高斯扩散模型来估计当地尺度上放射性核素的最可能的扩散方向和羽流结构。我们分析了在典型天气/环流模式下羽流方向和结构的差异，并提供了一种统计气候学方法，以便对有毒物质的扩散进行“初步估计”。该结果和所描述的方法可以支持和用于决策者在这样的重要情况下，如福岛事故。
