Centre for Social Research on Alcohol and Drugs, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2011 Sep;72(5):723-30. doi: 10.15288/jsad.2011.72.723.
The object of this study was to perform a comparative analysis of the aggregate relationship between alcohol and homicide in Russia and in the United States. The comparison was based on the magnitude of the alcohol effect, the alcohol attributable fraction (AAF), and the degree to which total consumption could account for trends in homicide.
We analyzed total and sex-specific homicide rates for the age groups 15-64 years, 15-34 years, and 35-64 years. The study period was 1959-1998 for Russia and 1950-2002 for the United States. For the United States, alcohol consumption was gauged by sales of alcohol; for Russia, estimated unrecorded consumption was included as well. The data were analyzed through autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling.
The results show that, for Russia as well as for the United States, a 1-L increase in consumption was associated with an increase in homicides of about 10%, although the absolute effect was markedly larger in Russia because of differences in homicide rates. The AAF estimates suggested that 73% and 57% of the homicides would be attributable to alcohol in Russia and in the United States, respectively. Most of the temporal variation in the Russian homicide rate could be accounted for by the trend in drinking, whereas the U.S. trend in total alcohol consumption had a more limited ability to predict the trend in homicides.
We conclude that the role of alcohol in homicide seems to be larger in Russia than in the United States.
本研究旨在对俄罗斯和美国的酒精与凶杀的总体关系进行比较分析。比较的依据是酒精的影响程度、酒精归因分数（AAF）以及总消耗量解释凶杀趋势的程度。
我们分析了俄罗斯 1959-1998 年和美国 1950-2002 年的 15-64 岁、15-34 岁和 35-64 岁年龄组的总凶杀率和性别特异性凶杀率。美国的酒精消耗量以酒精销售量来衡量；俄罗斯还包括了未记录的估计消耗量。数据分析采用自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型。
结果表明，无论是俄罗斯还是美国，消费量每增加 1 升，凶杀案就会增加约 10%，尽管由于凶杀率的差异，俄罗斯的绝对影响要大得多。AAF 估计表明，俄罗斯和美国的凶杀案分别有 73%和 57%归因于酒精。俄罗斯凶杀率的大部分时间变化可以用饮酒趋势来解释，而美国的总酒精消费量趋势对凶杀趋势的预测能力有限。
我们的结论是，酒精在凶杀案中的作用在俄罗斯似乎比在美国更大。
