Salahi-Moghaddam Abdoreza, Habibi-Nokhandam Majid, Fuentes Màrius V
Department of Parasitology, Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, Bandar Abbas, Iran.
Geospat Health. 2011 Nov;6(1):133-6. doi: 10.4081/gh.2011.165.
Following human fascioliasis outbreaks in 1988 and 1999 in Gilan province, northern Iran, efforts are now made to shed light on the seasonal pattern of fascioliasis transmission in this endemic area, taking into account snail host populations, climatic conditions and human cases. Populations of the intermediate host snail (Lymnaea spp.) peak in May and November, while there is a fourfold increase in the rate of human fascioliasis in February compared to that of September. Transmission is likely to occur mainly in late autumn and sporadically in late spring. Rainfall, seasonally analysed in periods of 3 years, indicates that accumulated summer rainfall may be related with the 1988 and 1999 human fascioliasis outbreaks. Although a more detailed picture, based on the analysis of further abiotic and biotic factors influencing fascioliasis transmission in this area, is required to substantiate this hypothesis, our results serve as the first step of a geographical information system project concerning the epidemiological study of fascioliasis in Iran. This local-scale study concerning the effects of climate change and natural disasters on the spread of fascioliasis aims to facilitate the understanding of what goes on at the regional scale in this respect.
1988年和1999年伊朗北部吉兰省爆发人体片形吸虫病疫情后，目前正努力阐明该流行地区片形吸虫病传播的季节性模式，同时考虑到中间宿主蜗牛种群、气候条件和人类病例情况。中间宿主蜗牛（椎实螺属）种群数量在5月和11月达到峰值，而2月人体片形吸虫病发病率相比9月增长了四倍。传播可能主要发生在深秋，在晚春偶有发生。对三年期间季节性分析的降雨量表明，夏季累积降雨量可能与1988年和1999年的人体片形吸虫病疫情有关。尽管需要基于对该地区影响片形吸虫病传播的更多非生物和生物因素分析得出更详细的情况来证实这一假设，但我们的结果是伊朗关于片形吸虫病流行病学研究的地理信息系统项目的第一步。这项关于气候变化和自然灾害对片形吸虫病传播影响的局部尺度研究旨在促进对该地区这方面情况的理解。
