Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2012 Jan;27(1):12-18. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2011.10.011. Epub 2011 Nov 29.
Our aim in conducting annual horizon scans is to identify issues that, although currently receiving little attention, may be of increasing importance to the conservation of biological diversity in the future. The 15 issues presented here were identified by a diverse team of 22 experts in horizon scanning, and conservation science and its application. Methods for identifying and refining issues were the same as in two previous annual scans and are widely transferable to other disciplines. The issues highlight potential changes in climate, technology and human behaviour. Examples include warming of the deep sea, increased cultivation of perennial grains, burning of Arctic tundra, and the development of nuclear batteries and hydrokinetic in-stream turbines.
我们进行年度前景扫描的目的是确定那些目前关注度较低,但未来可能对生物多样性保护变得越来越重要的问题。这里提出的 15 个问题是由一个由 22 名具有不同背景的专家组成的团队在进行前景扫描以及保护科学及其应用方面确定的。确定和精炼问题的方法与前两次年度扫描相同,并且广泛适用于其他学科。这些问题突出了气候、技术和人类行为方面的潜在变化。例如深海变暖、多年生谷物种植增加、北极冻原燃烧以及核电池和水动力学贯流式涡轮机的发展。