Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT/Room E38-432 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139-4307, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2012 Mar 20;46(6):3406-14. doi: 10.1021/es203518d. Epub 2012 Feb 29.
The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the issue of comining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis, but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future rare earth markets and market behavior. Increased use of wind energy and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future. However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements. For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs.
由于稀土元素 (REE) 的供应条件具有垄断性、采矿实践对环境不可持续以及需求快速增长，其未来供应情况令人担忧。我们对 REE 的潜在未来需求情景进行了评估，重点关注综合开采问题。为了简化分析，提出了许多假设，但这些情景确定了一些可能影响未来稀土市场和市场行为的关键变量。增加风能和电动汽车的使用是实现更可持续未来的关键因素。然而，由于目前电动汽车和风力涡轮机的技术严重依赖于镝 (Dy) 和钕 (Nd)，这两种元素在稀土磁铁中，这些技术的未来采用可能导致对这两种元素的需求大幅增加且不成比例。在这项研究中，开发了 REE 在这些应用中的上限和下限使用预测，以评估未来 REE 供应的可用性状况。如果没有有效的再利用和回收，或者没有开发使用较少 Dy 和 Nd 的技术，那么如果汽车和风力应用中的当前 REE 需求代表未来的需求，那么在未来 25 年内，遵循将大气 CO(2)稳定在 450ppm 的路径可能导致 Nd 和 Dy 的需求分别增加 700%以上和 2600%以上。
