Department of Neurological Surgery, Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, New York, USA.
World Neurosurg. 2012 Dec;78(6):646-50. doi: 10.1016/j.wneu.2011.12.001. Epub 2011 Dec 10.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive ability of the original ICH Score (oICH) in a large independent cohort of patients with arteriovenous malformation-associated intracerebral hemorrhage (AVM-ICH), an important cause of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) that is associated with significantly different epidemiology, clinical course, and outcome compared with primary ICH. METHODS: During the period 1997-2009, 91 patients were admitted to Columbia Medical Center with acute AVM-ICH. Demographic and admission clinical and radiographic variables were obtained for 84 patients through retrospective chart review. Admission oICH and Spetzler-Martin grading scale (SMGS) were calculated. Outcome was assessed at 3 months using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Maximum Youden Indices were used to identify cutoffs for age and ICH volume that are associated with optimal predictive accuracy for an unfavorable outcome (mRS ≥ 3). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate the predictive performance of oICH, and oICH with new age and ICH cutoff points (new AVM-ICH score based on original ICH Score [AVM-oICH]). RESULTS: The mean age was 35 years ± 14, and mean ICH volume was 22 mL ± 20. At 3-month follow-up, 3 (4%) patients were dead, and 15 (18%) had an unfavorable outcome. Two of the patients who died had oICH of 3, and one had oICH of 5. ICH volume of 37 mL and age of 41 years were identified as optimal cutoffs for predicting an unfavorable outcome. oICH and AVM-oICH showed good predictive accuracies with area under the curve of 0.914 and 0.891 (P = 0.422). AVM-oICH and oICH had similarly high sensitivities (0.889 and 0.944; P = 1.00), but the former had significantly greater specificity (0.879 vs. 0.682; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: oICH is a valid clinical grading scale with high predictive accuracy for functional outcome after AVM-ICH. It is unclear whether the score is appropriate for risk stratification with regard to mortality because of the low risk of death associated with AVM-ICH. Simple adjustments of the age and ICH volume cutoff points improve performance of the score and reduce the probability of overestimating a patient's risk of an unfavorable outcome after AVM-ICH.
目的:评估原始 ICH 评分(oICH)在大样本动静脉畸形相关性脑出血(AVM-ICH)患者中的预测能力。AVM-ICH 是脑出血的一个重要病因,与原发性脑出血相比,其流行病学、临床病程和预后有明显不同。
方法:1997 年至 2009 年间,91 例患者因急性 AVM-ICH 入住哥伦比亚大学医学中心。通过回顾性病历记录,获取 84 例患者的人口统计学和入院时的临床及影像学变量。计算入院时的 oICH 和 Spetzler-Martin 分级量表(SMGS)。采用改良 Rankin 量表(mRS)在 3 个月时评估预后。使用最大 Youden 指数确定与不良预后(mRS≥3)最相关的年龄和 ICH 量的截断值,从而确定最佳预测准确性。采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析评估 oICH 和基于原始 ICH 评分的新年龄和 ICH 截断值(新的基于原始 ICH 评分的 AVM-ICH 评分[AVM-oICH])的预测性能。
结果:平均年龄为 35 岁±14 岁,平均 ICH 量为 22 毫升±20 毫升。在 3 个月的随访中,3 例(4%)患者死亡,15 例(18%)预后不良。2 例死亡患者的 oICH 为 3 分,1 例为 5 分。ICH 量 37 毫升和年龄 41 岁被确定为预测不良预后的最佳截断值。oICH 和 AVM-oICH 的曲线下面积分别为 0.914 和 0.891(P=0.422),具有较好的预测准确性。oICH 和 AVM-oICH 的敏感性相似(0.889 和 0.944;P=1.00),但前者的特异性显著更高(0.879 比 0.682;P<0.001)。
结论:oICH 是一种用于评估 AVM-ICH 后功能预后的有效临床分级量表,具有较高的预测准确性。由于 AVM-ICH 患者死亡率低,尚不清楚该评分是否适用于死亡率相关的危险分层。简单调整年龄和 ICH 量的截断值可提高评分性能,降低高估 AVM-ICH 患者不良预后风险的概率。
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