The use of the finasteride-adjusted Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator in a Mexican referral population: a validation study.

OBJECTIVES

To perform the first validation study of the finasteride-adjusted Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (finPCPTRC) in a contemporary referral population in Mexico.

METHODS

837 patients referred to the Instituto Nacional de Cancerología, Mexico City, Mexico, between 2005 and 2009 were used to validate the finPCPTRC by examining various measures of discrimination and calibration. Net benefit curve analysis was used to gain insight into the use of the finPCPTRC for clinical decisions.

RESULTS

Prostate cancer (PCa) incidence (72.8%) was high in this Mexican referral cohort and 45.7% of men who were diagnosed with PCa had high-grade lesions (HGPCa, Gleason score >6). 1.3% of the patients were taking finasteride. The finPCPTRC was a superior diagnostic tool compared to prostate-specific antigen alone when discriminating patients with PCa from those without PCa (AUC = 0.784 vs. AUC = 0.687, p < 0.001) and when discriminating patients with HGPCa from those without HGPCa (AUC = 0.768 vs. AUC = 0.739, p < 0.001). The finPCPTRC underestimated the risk of PCa but overestimated the risk of HGPCa (both p < 0.001). Compared with other strategies to opt for biopsy, the net benefit would be larger with utilization of the finPCPTRC for patients accepting higher risks of HGPCa.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of biopsy-detectable PCa and HGPCa were high and 1.3% of this referral cohort in Mexico was taking finasteride. The risks of PCa or HGPCa calculated by the finPCPTRC were not well calibrated for this referral Mexican population and new clinical diagnostic tools are needed.