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发病函数的急剧变化对简单疾病动力学的影响。

Effect of a sharp change of the incidence function on the dynamics of a simple disease.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.

出版信息

J Biol Dyn. 2010 Sep;4(5):490-505. doi: 10.1080/17513751003793017.

Abstract

We investigate two cases of a sharp change of incidencec functions on the dynamics of a susceptible-infective-susceptible epidemic model. In the first case, low population levels have mass action incidence, while high population levels have proportional incidence, the switch occurring when the total population reaches a certain threshold. Using a modified Dulac theorem, we prove that this system has a single equilibrium which attracts all solutions for which the disease is present and the population remains bounded. In the second case, an increase of the number of infectives leads to a mass action term being added to a standard incidence term. We show that this allows a Hopf bifurcation to occur, with periodic orbits being generated when a locally asymptotically stable equilibrium loses stability.

摘要

我们研究了两个案例,即在易感性感染易感性传染病模型动力学中发病率函数的急剧变化。在第一种情况下,低人口水平具有质量作用发病率,而高人口水平具有比例发病率,当总人口达到一定阈值时发生转换。使用改进的 Dulac 定理,我们证明该系统具有单个平衡点,它吸引所有存在疾病且人口保持有界的解。在第二种情况下,感染者数量的增加导致标准发病期增加了一个发病期。我们表明,这允许发生 Hopf 分岔,当局部渐近稳定平衡点失去稳定性时,会产生周期性轨道。

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