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基于地理信息系统的美国大陆虫媒病毒传播风险网络模型。

A geographical information system-based web model of arbovirus transmission risk in the continental United States of America.

作者信息

Konrad Sarah K, Zou Li, Miller Scott N

机构信息

University of Wyoming, Ecosystem Science and Management, Dept. 3354 Laramie, WY 82071, USA.

出版信息

Geospat Health. 2012 Nov;7(1):157-9. doi: 10.4081/gh.2012.114.

Abstract

A degree-day (DD) model of West Nile virus capable of forecasting real-time transmission risk in the continental United States of America up to one week in advance using a 50-km grid is available online at https://sites. google.com/site/arbovirusmap/. Daily averages of historical risk based on temperatures for 1994-2003 are available at 10km resolution. Transmission risk maps can be downloaded from 2010 to the present. The model can be adapted to work with any arbovirus for which the temperature-related parameters are known, e.g. Rift Valley fever virus. To more effectively assess virus establishment and transmission, the model incorporates "compound risk" maps and forecasts, which includes livestock density as a parameter.

摘要

一种能够利用50公里网格提前一周预测美国大陆实时传播风险的西尼罗河病毒度日(DD)模型可在https://sites.google.com/site/arbovirusmap/在线获取。基于1994 - 2003年温度的历史风险日平均值以10公里分辨率提供。传播风险地图可从2010年至今下载。该模型可进行调整,以适用于任何已知与温度相关参数的虫媒病毒,例如裂谷热病毒。为了更有效地评估病毒的定殖和传播,该模型纳入了“复合风险”地图和预测,其中包括牲畜密度作为一个参数。

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