Department of Psychology, University of Sheffield.
Psychol Bull. 2014 Mar;140(2):511-43. doi: 10.1037/a0033065. Epub 2013 Jun 3.
Several theories construe risk appraisals as key determinants of decisions and actions, and this idea has been supported in correlational studies. However, correlational data cannot answer the question, "Does heightening risk appraisals change people's intentions and behavior?" The present review meta-analyzed experimental evidence in order to address this issue. We identified 4 elements of risk appraisal-risk perception, anticipatory emotion, anticipated emotion, and perceived severity-and located experiments that (a) engendered a statistically significant increase in risk appraisal among treatment compared to control participants and (b) measured subsequent intention or behavior. Heightening risk appraisals had effects of d+ = .31 (k = 217) and d+ = .23 (k = 93) on intention and behavior, respectively. There was evidence that the elements of risk appraisal combined to influence outcomes. For instance, heightening risk perceptions had larger effects on outcomes when anticipatory emotions or perceived severity was also increased. Crucially, risk appraisal effects were augmented by coping appraisals: Risk appraisals had larger effects on outcomes when response efficacy and self-efficacy were enhanced or when response costs were reduced. The largest effect sizes were observed when risk appraisals, response efficacy, and self-efficacy were simultaneously heightened (d+ = .98 and .45, for intention and behavior, respectively). These findings indicate that heightening risk appraisals changes intentions and behavior. However, the direct effects of risk appraisals were generally small. Exploiting synergies among the elements of risk appraisal, and between risk appraisals and coping appraisals, should make for more effective behavior change interventions.
几种理论将风险评估视为决策和行动的关键决定因素,这一观点在相关研究中得到了支持。然而,相关数据并不能回答“提高风险评估是否会改变人们的意图和行为?”这个问题。本综述分析了实验证据以解决这个问题。我们确定了风险评估的 4 个要素——风险感知、预期情绪、预期情绪和感知严重程度——并找到了(a)与对照组相比,实验组的风险评估显著增加,以及(b)测量随后的意图或行为的实验。提高风险评估对意图和行为的影响分别为 d+ =.31(k = 217)和 d+ =.23(k = 93)。有证据表明,风险评估的各个要素共同影响结果。例如,当预期情绪或感知严重程度也增加时,风险感知对结果的影响更大。至关重要的是,应对评估增强了风险评估的效果:当反应效能和自我效能增强或当反应成本降低时,风险评估对结果的影响更大。当风险评估、反应效能和自我效能同时提高时,观察到最大的效应量(d+ =.98 和.45,分别用于意图和行为)。这些发现表明,提高风险评估会改变意图和行为。然而,风险评估的直接影响通常很小。利用风险评估要素之间以及风险评估与应对评估之间的协同作用,应该会使行为改变干预措施更加有效。