United States Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia 20192, USA.
Sci Rep. 2013;3:2013. doi: 10.1038/srep02013.
The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21(st) century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction.
中全新世气候代表了相对于过去百万年的最近期地质平均温暖期,并且与 21 世纪末预计的气候具有相似之处。因此,它代表了一个自然实验,我们可以从中深入了解潜在的气候变化影响,为缓解和适应提供更明智的政策决策。在这里,我们首次对作为 PlioMIP(上新世模型比较计划)一部分生成的八个气候模型模拟的集合与 PRISM(上新世研究、解释和综合制图)项目平均年 SST 场之间的上新世海表温度(SST)进行了系统比较。我们的结果强调了古环境重建和气候模型模拟之间存在分歧的关键区域和动态情况。这些差异导致了实验设计和古环境重建时间细化的改进策略。