Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, N13, W8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-8628, Japan.
Waste Manag. 2013 Sep;33(9):1861-9. doi: 10.1016/j.wasman.2013.05.011. Epub 2013 Jun 17.
Long term methane emissions from landfill sites are often predicted by first-order decay (FOD) models, in which the default coefficients of the methane generation potential and the methane generation rate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are usually used. However, previous studies have demonstrated the large uncertainty in these coefficients because they are derived from a calibration procedure under ideal steady-state conditions, not actual landfill site conditions. In this study, the coefficients in the FOD model were estimated by a new approach to predict more precise long term methane generation by considering region-specific conditions. In the new approach, age-defined waste samples, which had been under the actual landfill site conditions, were collected in Hokkaido, Japan (in cold region), and the time series data on the age-defined waste sample's methane generation potential was used to estimate the coefficients in the FOD model. The degradation coefficients were 0.0501/y and 0.0621/y for paper and food waste, and the methane generation potentials were 214.4 mL/g-wet waste and 126.7 mL/g-wet waste for paper and food waste, respectively. These coefficients were compared with the default coefficients given by the IPCC. Although the degradation coefficient for food waste was smaller than the default value, the other coefficients were within the range of the default coefficients. With these new coefficients to calculate methane generation, the long term methane emissions from the landfill site was estimated at 1.35×10(4)m(3)-CH(4), which corresponds to approximately 2.53% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in the city (5.34×10(5)t-CO(2)/y).
长期以来，垃圾填埋场的甲烷排放量通常是通过一级衰减（FOD）模型预测的，该模型中通常使用政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）给出的甲烷生成潜力和甲烷生成率的默认系数。然而，先前的研究表明这些系数存在很大的不确定性，因为它们是根据理想的稳态条件下的校准程序得出的，而不是实际的垃圾填埋场条件。在本研究中，通过考虑特定地区的条件，采用一种新方法来预测更精确的长期甲烷生成，从而估算 FOD 模型中的系数。在新方法中，在日本北海道（寒冷地区）收集了处于实际垃圾填埋场条件下的按年龄定义的废物样本，并使用年龄定义的废物样本的甲烷生成潜力的时间序列数据来估算 FOD 模型中的系数。FOD 模型的降解系数分别为 0.0501/y 和 0.0621/y，用于纸张和食品废物，甲烷生成潜力分别为 214.4 mL/g-湿废物和 126.7 mL/g-湿废物。将这些系数与 IPCC 给出的默认系数进行了比较。虽然食品废物的降解系数小于默认值，但其他系数在默认系数范围内。使用这些新系数计算甲烷生成量，估算出垃圾填埋场的长期甲烷排放量为 1.35×10(4)m(3)-CH(4)，这相当于城市总二氧化碳排放量的 2.53%（5.34×10(5)t-CO(2)/y）。
