Department of Microbiology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
J Med Virol. 2013 Nov;85(11):2026-33. doi: 10.1002/jmv.23686. Epub 2013 Jul 12.
Rotavirus is a leading cause of severe infectious diarrhea in infants and young children aged <5 years. Rotavirus infections have minimal to strong seasonality depending on geographical locations. In this study, a comprehensive retrospective analysis was performed to evaluate the association between rotavirus admission and multiple key meteorological variables, including air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, and solar radiation over a 15-year period from 1995 to 2009 in Hong Kong. Rotavirus infections were found to show a distinct cyclical pattern with an annual peak in cold season. The weekly number of cases showed the strongest correlation with average air temperature of the previous 7 days (rho=-0.69; P<0.0001), followed by atmospheric pressure (rho=+0.67; P<0.0001); whereas only weak correlation with relative humidity (rho=-0.252; P<0.0001) and solar radiation (rho=-0.312; P<0.0001) was observed. Curve fitting regression analysis suggested that the correlation was nonlinear in nature in which the effect was more profound towards lower air temperature and higher atmospheric pressure conditions. In binary logistic regression analysis, a final model that included air temperature (≤ 20°C) and atmospheric pressure (≥ 1,013 hPa) predicted correctly 85.3% and 82.6% of weeks with rotavirus activity above and below the baseline level, respectively. In multivariate Poisson model, air temperature and solar radiation were independent factors associated with the weekly number of rotavirus cases, adjusted for seasonal variation. In summary, the current study provides evidence suggesting that local seasonal activity of rotavirus correlated strongly with air temperature, followed by atmospheric pressure but only minimally with relative humidity in pre-vaccine era.
轮状病毒是导致<5 岁婴幼儿严重感染性腹泻的主要原因。轮状病毒感染具有明显的季节性，其季节性特征因地理位置而异。本研究对 1995 年至 2009 年 15 年间香港地区轮状病毒入院患者与多种关键气象变量（包括气温、相对湿度、大气压和太阳辐射）之间的相关性进行了全面的回顾性分析。研究发现，轮状病毒感染具有明显的周期性，冬季呈明显季节性高峰。轮状病毒感染的周发病数与前 7 天的平均气温（rho=-0.69；P<0.0001）呈最强相关性，其次与大气压（rho=+0.67；P<0.0001）；而与相对湿度（rho=-0.252；P<0.0001）和太阳辐射（rho=-0.312；P<0.0001）仅呈弱相关性。曲线拟合回归分析表明，这种相关性具有非线性特征，在较低气温和较高大气压条件下，其相关性更为明显。在二元逻辑回归分析中，一个包含气温（≤20°C）和大气压（≥1013 hPa）的最终模型正确预测了轮状病毒活动高于和低于基线水平的周数分别为 85.3%和 82.6%。在多元泊松模型中，气温和太阳辐射是与每周轮状病毒病例数相关的独立因素，调整了季节性变化。综上所述，本研究提供的证据表明，在疫苗接种前时代，轮状病毒的本地季节性活动与气温密切相关，其次与大气压相关，而与相对湿度的相关性最小。
