Computer simulation of management strategies for American dog ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) and Rocky Mountain spotted fever.

Computer models were developed to simulate the effects of management technologies on populations of the American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis (Say), principal vector of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) in eastern North America. The technologies modeled were area-wide acaricide application, acaricide-food-baited tubes for self-treatment by small mammals, dipping of dogs in acaricides, acaricide-impregnated plastic dog collars, reduction of small mammal host populations (host management), and removal of vegetation that protects free-living tick stages (vegetative management). Submodels for each of these technologies were incorporated into a model (ADTSIM) for the population dynamics of the tick and RMSF transmission. Comparisons of simulated and observed data were used to verify reasonable accuracy of the submodels. Repetitive simulations were made to identify levels and timing of each control method (alone or combined) required to reduce tick populations below a RMSF transmission threshold of 252 unfed adults/ha. Eight to 30 acaricide applications, depending on acaricide and percentage of population treated, were needed during a 10-yr period to reduce densities of ticks below the threshold. The baited-tube method, host management, and vegetative management (depending on level and frequency of treatment) also were capable of reducing tick density below the threshold. However, acaricide-impregnated plastic dog collars did not reduce tick density below the threshold unless at least 50% of the hosts of adult ticks were domestic dogs. Integrated strategies were developed for management of ticks and RMSF in six selected states. These strategies reduced numbers of human cases of RMSF 90% or more by year 20 by maintaining tick densities between 100 and 252 unfed adults/ha.