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更多的人能活到 100 岁以上吗?如果可以,那会怎样?

Can a lot more people live to one hundred and what if they did?

机构信息

School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago, United States.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2013 Dec;61:141-5. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.06.029. Epub 2013 Jun 29.

Abstract

In the 21st century humanity will witness unprecedented, increases in the number of older people, especially centenarians, in both the developed and developing world. From a public policy standpoint, the aging of our populations and the longer lives we experience will change, the fabric of our modern world - from the funding of age entitlement programs, to the rising cost of health care, to the new ways in which we transport ourselves in increasingly more urban environments. If it becomes possible for biomedical advances to manufacture a form of biological plasticity among the new generations reaching 85 and older in the future, much like that which now exists for the recent middle-aged classes of people aged 65-85, then the future of aging will be bright. If we fail to marshal resources to confront the biological processes of aging, then it is possible that the more destructive side of senescence will emerge. In this paper, I explore the various perspectives on the future course of longevity, examine the prospects for significant increases in the number of very old people - especially centenarians - and present a general view of the demographic aging of our changing society.

摘要

在 21 世纪,人类将见证前所未有的增长,无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家,老年人的数量都会增加,尤其是百岁老人。从公共政策的角度来看,我们的人口老龄化和我们所经历的更长寿命将改变我们现代世界的结构——从养老基金计划的资金筹集,到医疗保健成本的上升,再到我们在日益城市化的环境中越来越多的新交通方式。如果生物医学的进步能够在未来达到 85 岁及以上的新一代人中制造出一种类似于现在 65-85 岁中年人的形式的生物可塑性,那么未来的老龄化将是光明的。如果我们不能调动资源来应对衰老的生物学过程,那么衰老的更具破坏性的一面就有可能出现。在本文中,我探讨了长寿未来发展的各种观点,考察了非常老的人——尤其是百岁老人——数量显著增加的前景,并对我们不断变化的社会的人口老龄化进行了总体展望。

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