Li Fengqing, Kwon Yong-Su, Bae Mi-Jung, Chung Namil, Kwon Tae-Sung, Park Young-Seuk
Department of Biology, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, 130-701, Republic of Korea.
Conserv Biol. 2014 Apr;28(2):498-508. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12219. Epub 2013 Dec 26.
Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming.
在全球范围内，东亚季风区是生物多样性最丰富的地区之一。该地区正在经历快速的人类发展，但其河流生态系统尚未得到充分研究。全球变暖对该地区物种的生存构成了重大挑战，因此有必要评估并减少变暖对受保护物种的潜在影响。我们预测了全球变暖对溪流昆虫（蜉蝣目、蜻蜓目、襀翅目和毛翅目[EOPT]）多样性的影响，并预测了韩国境内121种昆虫地理分布范围的变化。襀翅目是最敏感的目（从21世纪到2080年代物种数量减少71.4%），而蜻蜓目则受益于全球变暖的影响（从21世纪到2080年代物种数量增加66.7%）。预计在2060年代之前，全球变暖对溪流昆虫的影响将最小；然而，到2080年代，预计高地地区高达20%的物种会灭绝，低地地区为2%。全球变暖下溪流昆虫的预测反应表明，占据特定栖息地的物种可能会使其栖息地大幅减少。尽管如此，预计33%的EOPT（包括三分之二的蜻蜓目和三分之一的蜉蝣目、襀翅目和毛翅目）栖息地会因全球变暖而增加。广义相加模型预测的群落组成在本世纪会有所变化，预计21世纪和2080年代高地地区的群落结构会有很大差异。然而，预计在全球变暖下，溪流昆虫群落，尤其是蜻蜓目、襀翅目和毛翅目，将变得更加同质化。
