Epstein Marina, Bailey Jennifer A, Manhart Lisa E, Hill Karl G, Hawkins J David
a Social Development Research Group , University of Washington.
J Sex Res. 2014;51(7):721-30. doi: 10.1080/00224499.2013.849652. Epub 2014 Jan 14.
A robust link between early sexual initiation and sexual risk-taking behavior is reported in previous studies. The relationship may not be causal, however, as the effect of common risk factors is often not considered. The current study examined whether early initiation was a key predictor of risky sexual behavior in the 20s and 30s, over and above co-occurring individual and environmental factors. Data were drawn from the Seattle Social Development Project, a longitudinal panel of 808 youth. Early predictors (ages 10 to 15) and sexual risk taking (ages 21 to 24 and 30 to 33) were assessed prospectively. Early sexual initiation (before age 15) was entered into a series of probit regressions that also included family, neighborhood, peer, and individual risk factors. Although a positive bivariate relation between early sexual initiation and sexual risk taking was observed at both ages, the link did not persist when co-occurring risk factors were included. Behavioral disinhibition and antisocial peer influences emerged as the strongest predictors of sexual risk over and above early sexual initiation. These results suggest that early sexual initiation must be considered in the context of common antecedents; public health policy aimed at delaying sexual intercourse alone is unlikely to substantially reduce sexual risk behavior in young adulthood.
先前的研究报告了过早开始性行为与性冒险行为之间存在紧密联系。然而,这种关系可能并非因果关系,因为通常未考虑共同风险因素的影响。当前的研究考察了在20多岁和30多岁时,除了同时存在的个体和环境因素外,过早开始性行为是否是危险性行为的关键预测因素。数据取自西雅图社会发展项目,这是一个由808名青少年组成的纵向样本。前瞻性地评估了早期预测因素(10至15岁)和性冒险行为(21至24岁以及30至33岁)。过早开始性行为(15岁之前)被纳入一系列概率回归分析中,这些分析还包括家庭、邻里、同伴和个体风险因素。尽管在两个年龄段都观察到过早开始性行为与性冒险行为之间存在正相关的双变量关系,但当纳入同时存在的风险因素时,这种联系并不持续。行为抑制不足和反社会同伴影响成为除过早开始性行为之外性冒险行为最强的预测因素。这些结果表明,必须在共同的先行因素背景下考虑过早开始性行为;仅旨在推迟性交的公共卫生政策不太可能大幅降低年轻成年人的性风险行为。