Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Stockholm University, Frescativägen 50, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Stockholm University, Frescativägen 50, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
Chemosphere. 2014 Sep;110:31-40. doi: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2014.02.044. Epub 2014 Apr 22.
The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entire plausible range for non-ionizing organic substances are modelled under two alternative climate change scenarios (IPCC A2 and B2) and compared to a baseline climate scenario. The contributions of individual climate parameters are deduced in model experiments in which only one of the four parameters is changed from the baseline scenario. Of the four selected climate parameters, temperature is the most influential, and wind speed is least. Chemical concentrations in the Baltic region are projected to change by factors of up to 3.0 compared to the baseline climate scenario. For chemicals with property combinations similar to legacy persistent organic pollutants listed by the Stockholm Convention, modelled concentration ratios between two climate change scenarios and the baseline scenario range from factors of 0.5 to 2.0. This study is a first step toward quantitatively assessing climate change-induced changes in the environmental concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea region.
利用 POPCYCLING-Baltic 多介质化学物质命运模型，评估了未来温度、风速、降水和颗粒态有机碳变化对波罗的海区域环境中持久性有机化学物质浓度的影响。在两种气候变化情景（IPCC A2 和 B2）下，对具有涵盖所有非电离有机物质合理范围的特性组合的假设完全持久性化学物质的稳态浓度进行了建模，并与基线气候情景进行了比较。在模型实验中，仅将四个参数中的一个从基线情景中改变，推断出各个气候参数的贡献。在这四个选定的气候参数中，温度的影响最大，风速的影响最小。与基线气候情景相比，波罗的海地区的化学浓度预计将变化高达 3.0 倍。对于具有类似于斯德哥尔摩公约列出的持久性有机污染物特性组合的化学物质，两个气候变化情景与基线情景之间的模型浓度比范围为 0.5 至 2.0。本研究是朝着定量评估气候变化对波罗的海区域持久性有机化学物质环境浓度的影响迈出的第一步。
