Gerberry David J, Wagner Bradley G, Garcia-Lerma J Gerardo, Heneine Walid, Blower Sally
Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90024, USA.
Laboratory Branch, Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia 30329, USA.
Nat Commun. 2014 Dec 2;5:5454. doi: 10.1038/ncomms6454.
Antiretroviral (ARV)-based pre-exposure HIV interventions may soon be rolled out in resource-constrained Sub-Saharan African countries, but rollout plans have yet to be designed. Here we use geospatial modelling and optimization techniques to compare two rollout plans for ARV-based microbicides in South Africa: a utilitarian plan that minimizes incidence by using geographic targeting, and an egalitarian plan that maximizes geographic equity in access to interventions. We find significant geographic variation in the efficiency of interventions in reducing HIV transmission, and that efficiency increases disproportionately with increasing incidence. The utilitarian plan would result in considerable geographic inequity in access to interventions, but (by exploiting geographic variation in incidence) could prevent ~40% more infections than the egalitarian plan. Our results show that the geographic resource allocation decisions made at the beginning of a rollout, and the location where the rollout is initiated, will be crucial in determining the success of interventions in reducing HIV epidemics.
基于抗逆转录病毒(ARV)的HIV暴露前干预措施可能很快会在资源有限的撒哈拉以南非洲国家推出,但推出计划尚未制定。在此,我们运用地理空间建模和优化技术,比较南非基于ARV的杀微生物剂的两种推出计划:一种功利主义计划,通过地理定位将发病率降至最低;另一种平等主义计划,使获得干预措施的地理公平性最大化。我们发现,干预措施在减少HIV传播方面的效率存在显著的地理差异,且效率随着发病率的增加而不成比例地提高。功利主义计划会导致获得干预措施的地理不公平现象相当严重,但(通过利用发病率的地理差异)比平等主义计划多预防约40%的感染。我们的结果表明,在推出初期做出的地理资源分配决策以及推出起始地点,对于确定干预措施在减少HIV流行方面的成功与否至关重要。