Yang Likun, Zhao Xinhua, Peng Sen, Zhou Guangyu
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2015 Jan;187(1):4169. doi: 10.1007/s10661-014-4169-8. Epub 2014 Dec 3.
Eutrophication models have been widely used to assess water quality in landscape lakes. Because flow rate in landscape lakes is relatively low and similar to that of natural lakes, eutrophication is more dominant in landscape lakes. To assess the risk of eutrophication in landscape lakes, a set of dynamic equations was developed to simulate lake water quality for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorous (TP), dissolve oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll a (Chl a). Firstly, the Bayesian calibration results were described. Moreover, the ability of the model to reproduce adequately the observed mean patterns and major cause-effect relationships for water quality conditions in landscape lakes were presented. Two loading scenarios were used. A Monte Carlo algorithm was applied to calculate the predicated water quality distributions, which were used in the established hierarchical assessment system for lake water quality risk. The important factors affecting the lake water quality risk were defined using linear regression analysis. The results indicated that the variations in the landscape lake receiving recharge water quality caused considerable landscape lake water quality risk in the surrounding area. Moreover, the Chl a concentration in lake water was significantly affected by TP and TN concentrations; the lake TP concentration was the limiting factor for growth of plankton in lake water. The lake water TN concentration provided the basic nutritional requirements. Lastly, lower TN and TP concentrations in the receiving recharge water caused increased lake water quality risk.
富营养化模型已被广泛用于评估景观湖的水质。由于景观湖的流速相对较低，与天然湖泊相似，富营养化在景观湖中更为突出。为了评估景观湖的富营养化风险，开发了一组动态方程来模拟湖水总氮（TN）、总磷（TP）、溶解氧（DO）和叶绿素a（Chl a）的水质。首先，描述了贝叶斯校准结果。此外，还展示了该模型充分再现景观湖水质条件下观测到的平均模式和主要因果关系的能力。使用了两种负荷情景。应用蒙特卡罗算法计算预测的水质分布，其用于已建立的湖泊水质风险分层评估系统。使用线性回归分析确定了影响湖泊水质风险的重要因素。结果表明，景观湖接受补给水质的变化在周边地区造成了相当大的景观湖水质风险。此外，湖水叶绿素a浓度受总磷和总氮浓度的显著影响；湖泊总磷浓度是湖水中浮游生物生长的限制因素。湖泊总氮浓度提供了基本的营养需求。最后，接受补给水中较低的总氮和总磷浓度导致湖泊水质风险增加。
