2015年和2020年癌症发病率、患病率及接受抗肿瘤治疗的癌症患者数量估算——捷克国家癌症登记处分析

Dusek L, Pavlík T, Májek O, Büchler T, Muzik J, Maluskova D, Koptíková J, Bortlicek Z, Abrahámová J

Klin Onkol. 2015;28(1):30-43. doi: 10.14735/amko201530.

BACKGROUND

Cancer burden in the Czech population ranks among the highest worldwide, which introduces a strong need for a prospective modelling of cancer incidence and prevalence rates. Moreover, a prediction of number of cancer patients requiring active antitumor therapy is also an important issue. This paper presents the stage-specific predictions of cancer incidence and prevalence, and the stage- and region-specific patients requiring active antitumor therapy for the most common cancer diagnoses in the Czech Republic for years 2015 and 2020. The stage-specific estimates are also presented with regard to the treatment phase as newly diagnosed patients, patients treated for non-terminal recurrence, and patients treated for terminal recurrence.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data of the Czech National Cancer Registry from 1977 to 2011 has been used for the analysis, omitting the records of patients diagnosed as death certificate only or at autopsy. In total, 1,777,775 incidences have been considered for the estimation using a statistical model utilizing solely the population-based cancer registry data. All estimates have been calculated with respect to the changing demographic structure of the Czech population and the clinical stage at diagnosis.

RESULTS

Considering year 2011 as the baseline, we predict 89%, 15%, 31% and 32% increase in prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer incidence, respectively, in 2020 resulting in 13,153, 9,368, 8,695, and 8,604 newly dia-g--nosed cancer patients in that year, respectively. Regarding cancer prevalence in 2020, the estimated increase is 140%, 40%, 51%, and 17% for prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer, respectively, meaning that more than 100,000 prevalent female breast cancer patients as well as more than 100,000 prevalent prostate cancer patients are expected in the Czech Republic. The estimated numbers of patients requiring active antitumor therapy for prostate, colorectal, female breast and lung cancer in the Czech Republic in 2020 are 23,652, 14,006, 14,759 and 8,272; respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis documents a serious increase in cancer incidence and prevalence in the Czech Republic in years 2015 and 2020 when compared to the situation in 2011. Regarding the estimated numbers of patients requiring active antitumor therapy, the model confirms a continuous increase that must be accounted for in the future planning of health care in the Czech Republic.

背景

捷克人群中的癌症负担在全球名列前茅，这使得对癌症发病率和患病率进行前瞻性建模的需求极为迫切。此外，预测需要积极抗肿瘤治疗的癌症患者数量也是一个重要问题。本文呈现了2015年和2020年捷克共和国最常见癌症诊断的癌症发病率和患病率的阶段特异性预测，以及需要积极抗肿瘤治疗的阶段和地区特异性患者情况。阶段特异性估计还针对治疗阶段进行了呈现，分为新诊断患者、非终末期复发患者和终末期复发患者。

患者与方法

分析使用了捷克国家癌症登记处1977年至2011年的数据，排除了仅诊断为死亡证明或尸检时诊断的患者记录。总共1,777,775例发病情况被纳入使用仅基于人群癌症登记数据的统计模型进行估计。所有估计均根据捷克人口不断变化的人口结构和诊断时的临床阶段进行计算。

结果

以2011年为基线，我们预测到2020年前列腺癌、结直肠癌、女性乳腺癌和肺癌的发病率将分别增加89%、15%、31%和32%，当年新增确诊癌症患者分别为13,153例、9,368例、8,695例和8,604例。关于2020年的癌症患病率，前列腺癌、结直肠癌、女性乳腺癌和肺癌的估计增幅分别为140%、40%、51%和17%，这意味着捷克共和国预计将有超过10万名女性乳腺癌患者以及超过10万名前列腺癌患者患病。2020年捷克共和国前列腺癌、结直肠癌、女性乳腺癌和肺癌需要积极抗肿瘤治疗的患者估计数量分别为23,652例、14,006例、14,759例和8,272例。