Dureuil M, Worm B
Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford St., P. O. Box 15000, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada.
J Fish Biol. 2015 Dec;87(6):1389-410. doi: 10.1111/jfb.12830.
This study addresses the inherent uncertainty when estimating growth from limited mark-recapture information. A selection procedure was developed utilizing 18 competing growth estimation methods. The optimal method for a given data set was identified by simulating the length at capture and recapture under different scenarios of measurement error and growth variability while considering the structure of observed data. This selection procedure was applied to mark-recapture data for 37 female and 16 male tope sharks Galeorhinus galeus obtained from tagging studies in the north-east Atlantic Ocean. Parameter estimates differed strongly among methods, showing the need for careful method selection. The selection approach suggested that best estimates for males and females were given by James' weighted least-squares approach with a fixed asymptote. Given an average total length (LT) at birth of 28 cm, the von Bertalanffy growth function of north-east Atlantic G. galeus would be LT = 200·85 - (200·85 - 28)e(-0·076t) for females and LT = 177·30 - (177·30 - 28)e(-0·081t) for males. The resulting age estimates were up to 11 years lower when compared with previous estimates derived from highly uncertain vertebrae readings. More generally, this procedure can help identify optimal estimation methods for a given data set and therefore aid in estimating more reliable growth parameters from mark-recapture information.
本研究探讨了利用有限的标记重捕信息估计生长时固有的不确定性。开发了一种选择程序,使用18种相互竞争的生长估计方法。通过在不同测量误差和生长变异性情景下模拟捕获和重捕时的长度,同时考虑观测数据的结构,确定给定数据集的最佳方法。该选择程序应用于从东北大西洋标记研究中获得的37条雌性和16条雄性汤氏魟 Galeorhinus galeus 的标记重捕数据。不同方法之间的参数估计差异很大,这表明需要仔细选择方法。选择方法表明,对于雄性和雌性,最佳估计由具有固定渐近线的詹姆斯加权最小二乘法给出。假设出生时的平均全长(LT)为28厘米,东北大西洋 G. galeus 的冯·贝塔朗菲生长函数对于雌性为 LT = 200·85 - (200·85 - 28)e(-0·076t),对于雄性为 LT = 177·30 - (177·30 - 28)e(-0·081t)。与之前从高度不确定的脊椎读数得出的估计相比,由此得出的年龄估计低了多达11岁。更一般地说,该程序可以帮助为给定数据集确定最佳估计方法,从而有助于从标记重捕信息中估计更可靠的生长参数。